Australia’s trading partners in 2026 define not just what we sell to the world, but how exposed our economy is when global relationships shift. In 2024–25, Australia’s total two-way trade in goods and services reached approximately $1.28 trillion — but the trade surplus that once cushioned the economy has narrowed sharply, from $54.8 billion in 2023–24 down to just $16.7 billion. Behind that number is a story about commodity prices, concentrated exposure, and a trade map that’s changing faster than most Australians realise.
The Headline Numbers: Where Australia Stands in 2024–25
Australia exported $646.6 billion worth of goods and services in 2024–25 — a fall of 2.0 per cent on the year before. Imports rose 4.4 per cent to $629.9 billion. The surplus still exists, but it’s thin.
The reason the surplus is shrinking is structural. Australia’s export earnings are heavily tied to commodity prices — iron ore, coal, and LNG — and those prices have softened from their post-COVID peaks. Meanwhile, import demand has continued to grow as consumer spending on vehicles, electronics, and fuel remains strong.
The core tension in Australia’s trade position is this: we export raw materials and import manufactured goods. That dynamic has served Australia well during commodity booms, but it also means export revenue is volatile in ways that import spending is not.
Key 2024–25 Trade Figures (ABS)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total goods and services exports | $646.6 billion |
| Total goods and services imports | $629.9 billion |
| Trade balance (surplus) | +$16.7 billion |
| Change in exports (year-on-year) | −2.0% |
| Change in imports (year-on-year) | +4.4% |
Source: ABS, International Trade: Supplementary Information, Financial Year 2024–25
Australia’s Top Export Markets in 2024–25
Five countries received more than 60 per cent of Australia’s total exports in 2024–25. All five are in Asia or the Pacific, and four are among the world’s largest energy and steel-producing economies — which tells you almost everything you need to know about what Australia is selling.
| Rank | Country | Exports to (A$b) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | $194.6b |
| 2 | Japan | $72.8b |
| 3 | South Korea | $40.6b |
| 4 | United States | $39.4b |
| 5 | India | $35.8b |
Source: DFAT, Australia’s Trade in Goods and Services 2024–25
China is not just the largest export market — it is in a different category from every other partner. At $194.6 billion, Australia’s exports to China are more than 2.5 times what we send to Japan, our second-largest customer. That concentration is the single biggest structural risk in Australia’s trade position.
India is the standout growth story. Exports to India have risen steadily and the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (AITIGA) — which entered into force in 2022 — is deepening that relationship. At $35.8 billion, India has now displaced Singapore and Taiwan from Australia’s top-five export destinations.
Australia’s Top Import Sources in 2024–25
The import picture looks different from the export picture. China and the United States dominate imports, but for entirely different reasons: China supplies manufactured goods, electronics, and consumer products; the United States primarily supplies professional services, digital products, aircraft, and specialised machinery.
| Rank | Country | Imports from (A$b) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | $120.1b |
| 2 | United States | $94.0b |
| 3 | Japan | $32.9b |
| 4 | South Korea | $25.7b |
| 5 | Thailand | $24.0b |
Source: DFAT, Australia’s Trade in Goods and Services 2024–25
The United States at number two on imports is a figure worth sitting with. Australia sends $39.4 billion worth of goods and services to the US, but receives $94 billion in return — a deficit of roughly $54.6 billion in America’s favour. This has become directly relevant in 2026, as US trade policy under the Trump administration has focused on bilateral trade deficits. The US actually runs a large trade surplus with Australia, which gives Australia some negotiating insulation from blanket tariff measures — though that protection is not guaranteed.
Thailand’s presence in the top five import sources reflects Australia’s reliance on Southeast Asian manufacturing, particularly in the automotive supply chain and processed foods.
The Master Data Table: Two-Way Trade by Partner
The most complete way to view a trading relationship is two-way trade — the combined value of what flows in both directions.
| Country | Exports to (A$b) | Imports from (A$b) | Two-Way Trade (A$b) | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | $194.6b | $120.1b | $314.7b | +$74.5b |
| United States | $39.4b | $94.0b | $133.4b | −$54.6b |
| Japan | $72.8b | $32.9b | $105.7b | +$39.9b |
| South Korea | $40.6b | $25.7b | $66.3b | +$14.9b |
| India | $35.8b | n/a (not top-5 source) | ~$48b* | surplus |
| Thailand | n/a (not top-5 destination) | $24.0b | — | — |
India’s two-way trade estimated; import figure not separately confirmed in top-5 ABS sources data. Source: ABS/DFAT, Financial Year 2024–25.
What Australia Exports: The Commodity Story
Australia’s export profile is dominated by resources and energy. In 2024–25, the top five export categories by value were:
| Commodity / Category | Value (A$b) |
|---|---|
| Iron ore and concentrates | $117.0b |
| Coal (thermal and metallurgical) | $75.3b |
| Natural gas (LNG) | $63.8b |
| Education-related travel services | $52.8b |
| Gold | $38.4b |
Source: DFAT, Australia’s Top 25 Exports, Goods and Services 2024–25
Iron ore alone accounts for more than 18 per cent of total exports. The top three resource categories — iron ore, coal, and LNG — together represent roughly $256 billion, or about 40 cents in every export dollar. Education services at fourth place is a reminder that Australia’s trade isn’t only physical commodities: international students contributed $52.8 billion to the economy through education-related travel spending, making it the country’s largest services export.
Why Commodity Prices Matter So Much
The 2 per cent fall in total exports in 2024–25 was not driven by falling volumes. Australia shipped more iron ore, not less. The issue was price. The benchmark iron ore price averaged around US$93 per tonne in 2024, and is forecast to fall to US$83 per tonne in 2025 and further to US$74 by 2027, according to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources Resources and Energy Quarterly. Lower prices on the same volumes means lower revenue — and when iron ore is your biggest export by a wide margin, that matters directly to the trade balance and to federal budget revenues.
What Australia Imports: The Manufacturing Gap
Australia’s top imports reveal what the domestic economy does not produce efficiently. The pattern is consistent: we buy finished goods, fuel, and services from abroad.
| Category | Value (A$b) |
|---|---|
| Personal travel (excl. education) | $68.2b |
| Refined petroleum | $47.0b |
| Passenger motor vehicles | $35.4b |
Source: DFAT, Australia’s Top 25 Imports, Goods and Services 2024–25
Personal travel at the top of the list reflects Australians travelling overseas — this is a services import. It does not mean goods are crossing the border; it means money is being spent in other countries’ economies. Refined petroleum at $47 billion highlights Australia’s well-documented fuel security vulnerability — the country has minimal domestic refining capacity and is dependent on imports for the petrol and diesel that runs the transport network. Passenger motor vehicles at $35.4 billion reflect the absence of a domestic car manufacturing industry since Holden, Ford, and Toyota ceased Australian production.
The China Question: Concentration Risk in 2026
Australia’s trade relationship with China is, by any measure, the most important and the most exposed. China accounts for:
- $194.6 billion of Australia’s exports — more than Japan, South Korea, the USA, and India combined
- $120.1 billion of Australia’s imports
- Roughly 25 per cent of Australia’s total two-way trade
The dependency runs deep at the commodity level. China is the dominant buyer of Australian iron ore, coal, LNG, and agricultural products. When Beijing imposed trade restrictions on Australian barley, wine, beef, lobster, and coal in 2020–21, the disruption was significant — though Australia ultimately found alternative markets for many affected goods.
The diplomatic reset that began in late 2022 and continued through 2023–24 has partially restored trade flows, and coal shipments to China resumed. But the episode demonstrated that a single policy decision in Beijing can cascade through Australian export revenues, commodity prices, and ultimately into company earnings and government tax receipts.
For more on the specific trade flows between Australia and China, see our full breakdown of the Australia–China trade relationship.
The United States: A Deficit Partner in 2026
The trade relationship with the United States runs in the opposite direction to most of Australia’s partners. Australia runs a trade deficit with the US — it imports far more from America than it exports there.
At $94 billion in imports versus $39.4 billion in exports, the US runs a $54.6 billion surplus with Australia. This is the context that has made the US tariff situation in 2026 particularly complex. When the Trump administration applied broad tariff measures to trading partners based on bilateral trade balances, Australia’s position as a deficit country with the US gave it a different risk profile than countries like China, Germany, or Vietnam, which run large surpluses with America.
For a full analysis of the tariff exposure, see our guide to US tariffs and what they mean for Australian exporters.
Japan, South Korea, and the LNG Story
Japan and South Korea are Australia’s second and fourth-largest export markets respectively, and both relationships are defined by energy trade. Australia is the world’s largest LNG exporter, and Japan and South Korea are among the world’s largest LNG importers. Long-term contracts, many running 15–20 years, underpin the bulk of these flows.
The emerging complication for both relationships is the energy transition. Japan has publicly committed to carbon neutrality by 2050, and while LNG is positioned as a “transition fuel,” the long-term trajectory points toward lower fossil fuel imports. South Korea has similar commitments. Australia’s export revenues from these markets will likely peak within this decade.
The detail on both relationships is covered in the Australia–Japan trade deep-dive.
India: The Growth Relationship
India represents Australia’s clearest near-term trade growth opportunity. Two factors are driving the relationship:
- The Australia-India AITIGA entered into force in December 2022, providing preferential access for key Australian goods including critical minerals, coal, wine, and agricultural products.
- India’s steel production targets — 300 million tonnes by 2030, double current output — create structural demand for Australian metallurgical coal and iron ore that is growing as China’s demand stabilises.
At $35.8 billion in exports, India is now the fifth-largest destination for Australian goods and services. The trajectory is upward. Education is also a significant component: India is the largest source of international students in Australia, contributing substantially to the education services export figure.
ASEAN: The Underrated Bloc
Southeast Asia as a region receives less attention than individual partners, but collectively it represents a significant trade relationship. Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines together absorb tens of billions of Australian exports annually.
Thailand alone is Australia’s fifth-largest import source at $24 billion, primarily through motor vehicle supply chains. Singapore is a major financial and professional services hub through which Australian capital flows. Indonesia is a growing market for agricultural products and a significant source of refined petroleum imports.
Australia’s FTAs with ASEAN countries — both through bilateral agreements and the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand FTA (AANZFTA) — provide the framework for deepening these relationships as Southeast Asian economies grow.
The Structural Reality: What This All Means
Several patterns emerge from looking at Australia’s trade data in full:
Exports are concentrated in resources, destinations are concentrated in Asia. The top three export commodities — iron ore, coal, and LNG — go predominantly to four countries: China, Japan, South Korea, and India. This is efficient when demand is strong, but fragile when commodity prices fall or when geopolitical relationships deteriorate.
Imports are diversified. Australia imports from a wide range of countries across Asia, Europe, and North America. The import basket is relatively diversified, which provides supply chain resilience.
The trade surplus is narrowing. The $16.7 billion surplus in 2024–25 is less than a third of the $54.8 billion surplus recorded in 2023–24. Falling commodity prices on the export side and rising import demand on the domestic side are both contributing. If iron ore prices continue their forecast decline, the surplus could erode further.
Services are growing. Education, tourism, and professional services exports are a meaningful and growing component of Australia’s trade picture. These are less volatile than commodities but take longer to grow and are harder to track.
FAQ
Who is Australia’s biggest trading partner in 2026?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner by a wide margin. In 2024–25, total two-way trade with China was approximately $314.7 billion, accounting for around 25 per cent of Australia’s total trade. Australia exported $194.6 billion to China and imported $120.1 billion in return.
Does Australia have a trade surplus or deficit?
Australia currently runs a trade surplus — meaning it exports more than it imports. The surplus was $16.7 billion in 2024–25, significantly down from $54.8 billion in 2023–24. The narrowing reflects softening commodity export prices and rising domestic import demand.
What does Australia export the most?
Australia’s largest export by value is iron ore and concentrates, at $117.0 billion in 2024–25. Coal ($75.3 billion) and natural gas/LNG ($63.8 billion) are the second and third largest. Education-related travel services ($52.8 billion) is the largest services export.
What does Australia import the most?
The largest import category in 2024–25 was personal travel services ($68.2 billion, representing Australians travelling overseas), followed by refined petroleum ($47.0 billion) and passenger motor vehicles ($35.4 billion).
Is Australia’s trade relationship with the US affected by tariffs in 2026?
Australia’s trade position with the United States is unusual — Australia runs a trade deficit with the US of around $54.6 billion. Because the US exports significantly more to Australia than it receives in return, Australia is less exposed to US tariff measures aimed at surplus-running countries. However, some sector-specific tariffs, particularly on steel and aluminium, remain in effect and affect Australian producers.
Conclusion
Australia’s trade in 2026 is strong in volume but narrowing in surplus, heavily concentrated on resources and on China, and facing headwinds from commodity price cycles and global energy transition pressures. The data shows an economy that has prospered from selling raw materials to industrialising Asia — but one that needs to watch closely as those dynamics shift. Understanding the partner-by-partner picture is the starting point.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or migration advice. Data is sourced from publicly available Australian government sources and is accurate at time of publication. Please consult a registered professional for advice specific to your situation.
