The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the March 2026 Consumer Price Index on 29 April 2026 at 11:30am AEST. This is the most closely watched inflation data release of the year — the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board meets just six days later on 5 May, and the March CPI number will be the single most important input into whether rates rise to 4.35% or hold at 4.10%.
Here is what economists are forecasting, why the March number is expected to be significantly higher than February, and what it means for your household budget.
Where Inflation Stood in February 2026
The most recent confirmed ABS data is for February 2026:
| Measure | Annual rate | Monthly change |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI | 3.7% | 0% (original) / +0.2% (seasonally adjusted) |
| Trimmed mean (underlying) | 3.3% | — |
The three biggest contributors to February’s annual inflation were:
- Housing: +7.2% — driven by electricity costs (+37% out-of-pocket), new dwelling prices, and rents
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +3.1% — beef and lamb both up more than 13%
- Recreation and culture: +4.1% — travel, streaming, and leisure costs
Critically, February’s fuel data showed automotive fuel prices falling 7.2% over the year — because the data was collected before the Middle East conflict escalated on 28 February 2026. That figure is now completely out of date.
The March data captures the full impact of the fuel price spike for the first time.
Why March Is Expected to Be Much Higher
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply flows — was effectively disrupted within days.
Australian retail petrol prices jumped approximately 50 cents per litre in under a month, rising from around $1.69 to $2.19 per litre on average before the federal government’s excise cut provided partial relief from 1 April. For context, automotive fuel accounts for approximately 3% of the CPI basket, making it a significant but not dominant driver.
The March CPI captures price data collected throughout March — before the excise cut relief arrived on 1 April. This means the full price spike hits the March number cleanly.
Beyond fuel, secondary effects are already flowing through:
- Freight and delivery surcharges — Australia Post, Toll, Linfox, and StarTrack all flagged fuel surcharge increases in late March
- Construction costs — the Housing Industry Association warned sustained fuel increases could add $8,000–$15,000 to the cost of building a new home
- Food supply chain costs — Westpac analysts expect food inflation to accelerate to 4–5% by mid-2026 as higher fuel costs filter through
What Economists Are Forecasting
| Source | March headline CPI forecast | Trimmed mean forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Westpac | +1.5% quarterly / 4.2% annually | +0.9% quarterly / 3.5% annually |
| CBA | Headline could reach 5.4% by mid-2026 | Trimmed mean peaks ~3.8% |
| SBS/ANU economist McKibbin | CPI could climb to 4.8% | — |
| CBA senior economist Saunders | CPI could exceed 4% | — |
Westpac is the most specific: it forecasts the monthly March CPI indicator rising 1.3% in a single month, with the annual pace of headline inflation peaking at 5.8% in May before the excise cut effects feed through.
Consumer inflation expectations — measured by ANZ-Roy Morgan — soared to 6.9% in mid-March, a record high, reflecting how quickly public sentiment shifted after the fuel price spike.
The Trimmed Mean Is the Number That Really Matters
The RBA does not set policy based on headline CPI. It focuses on trimmed mean inflation — also called underlying inflation — which strips out the most volatile price movements in both directions and gives a cleaner picture of persistent price pressures.
Fuel is classified as a volatile item and is largely excluded from the trimmed mean calculation. This is actually important context: even if headline CPI surges to 4.5% in March driven by fuel, the RBA’s primary concern is whether the trimmed mean is also rising.
Westpac forecasts trimmed mean at 0.9% for the March quarter and 3.5% annually — an acceleration from 3.3% in February. CBA forecasts trimmed mean peaking at 3.8% later in 2026.
If the trimmed mean comes in above 3.5% for March, the case for a May rate hike to 4.35% becomes very strong. If it holds near 3.3%, the Board may pause. This is why the 29 April release is so critical to the 5 May decision.
For the full analysis of what the RBA is likely to do in May, see our RBA May 2026 decision preview.
What High CPI Means for Australian Households
If headline inflation rises to 4–4.5% in March as expected, it means the cost of living is rising at more than double the pace of the RBA’s 2–3% target — and nearly double the rate of wage growth recorded in the December quarter (3.4% WPI).
In practical terms:
- Groceries — food inflation already at 3.1%, expected to accelerate as freight costs pass through. For the detailed breakdown, see our grocery prices guide
- Petrol — already hitting household budgets hard. See our petrol prices guide
- Electricity — already up 37% out-of-pocket with the federal rebates gone. See our electricity prices guide
- Mortgages — if March CPI triggers a May hike, variable rate borrowers will face a third increase in 2026. See our mortgage stress guide
The ABS Release — What to Expect on 29 April
The ABS will release the March 2026 CPI at 11:30am AEST on 29 April 2026 at abs.gov.au.
The March release is also a quarterly publication — meaning it includes the full quarterly CPI data for January–March 2026 alongside the monthly figures. This quarterly data is what the RBA formally uses in its forecasting models and what feeds directly into the May 5 decision.
Key numbers to watch when the release lands:
- Headline CPI monthly change — a result above 1.0% would be very high by recent standards
- Headline CPI annual rate — watch whether it breaks above 4.0%
- Trimmed mean annual rate — the critical number for the RBA; above 3.5% points strongly toward a May hike
- Fuel contribution — how much of the headline move is fuel vs broader price pressures
- Housing and rents — whether shelter costs continue accelerating
Data disclaimer: All figures, forecasts, and economist estimates in this article are based on publicly available information as at 20 April 2026. The actual March 2026 CPI result has not yet been published. Forecasts from Westpac, CBA, and other economists are indicative only and subject to revision. This article will be updated with the confirmed ABS data as soon as it is released on 29 April 2026 at 11:30am AEST. Do not use the forecast figures in this article as confirmed inflation data.
