Australia’s March 2026 CPI data lands on 29 April — and it may be the single most consequential inflation reading in years.
Annual CPI inflation was 3.7 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026, with the largest contributors being Housing (+7.2%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.1%) and Recreation and culture (+4.1%). That was already uncomfortably high. But February’s data only captured the very beginning of the Middle East conflict. March tells the full story — and nobody will like what it shows.
Why March CPI Is Different From Every Recent Reading
The Middle East conflict escalated on 28 February 2026, sending oil prices and petrol costs surging almost immediately. The March CPI reference period runs from 1 to 14 March — meaning this reading captures the first full fortnight of the oil shock, with no offsetting measures in place.
Critically, the federal government’s fuel excise cut — which halved the rate to 26.3 cents per litre — did not take effect until 1 April. It will not appear in March CPI at all. What Australians will see on 29 April is raw, unmitigated energy price pain flowing directly through to the inflation number.
| CPI Reading | Annual Rate | Key Context |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | 3.8% | Pre-conflict, holiday travel spike |
| January 2026 | 3.8% | Electricity rebates expiring |
| February 2026 | 3.7% | Conflict just began (28 Feb) |
| March 2026 (due 29 Apr) | Forecast: 4.0–5.4% | First full oil shock reading |
Sources: ABS Consumer Price Index, major bank forecasts
What the Banks Are Forecasting
Every major Australian bank is bracing for a significant jump. Commonwealth Bank economists expect headline inflation to rise to around 5.4 per cent by mid-2026.
Westpac also projects a headline CPI peak of 5.4 per cent in the June quarter, while trimmed mean inflation — the RBA’s preferred underlying measure — is expected to peak around 4 per cent later in 2026.
RBA staff analysis has indicated that if oil prices remain near US$100 per barrel, headline consumer price inflation could temporarily lift to around 5 per cent — far above the central bank’s 2–3 per cent target band.
The trimmed mean is the number that matters most to the RBA. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026 — unchanged from January. A sharp move upward in March would lock in the case for another rate hike in May.
The Direct Link to Your Mortgage
The March CPI result will land twelve days before the RBA’s next meeting on 4–5 May. It is the last major inflation data point the Board will see before deciding whether to hike rates again.
All four major banks — ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac — are currently forecasting a 25 basis point rate hike at the May meeting, which would lift the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.
Consumer inflation expectations climbed to 5.9 per cent in April 2026 — the highest since November 2022 — signalling rising household concern over price pressures ahead of the RBA’s next meeting.
A March CPI print above 4 per cent virtually seals a May hike. A reading that surprises to the downside — possible if the oil shock was less broad-based than feared — could give the Board pause. Either way, 29 April is the pivot point.
For the full picture on how past and future RBA rate decisions affect your mortgage repayments, see Fenro’s RBA interest rate tracker for 2026.
What’s Driving the March Number
Three categories will do most of the work in the March print:
1. Transport / Fuel This is the biggest swing factor. Automotive fuel was falling at a rate of −7.2 per cent year-on-year in February — before the Middle East conflict. That deflationary tailwind has reversed sharply. Petrol prices surged by roughly 50 cents per litre in the weeks following 28 February. March CPI will reflect that spike in full, with no excise relief to offset it. See the current state-by-state breakdown on Fenro’s petrol prices tracker.
2. Housing Housing inflation was already running at 7.2 per cent in February — the largest single contributor to annual CPI. Rent pressures remain structurally elevated and are unlikely to ease in March.
3. Food Supply chain costs respond to diesel prices with a 3–6 week lag. The March reading may only partially capture the freight cost pass-through from the oil shock — meaning food inflation could actually worsen further in April and May.
FAQ
When is Australia’s March 2026 CPI released?
The ABS will publish the Consumer Price Index for March 2026 at 11:30am AEST on Wednesday, 29 April 2026.
What is Australia’s current inflation rate?
Annual CPI inflation was 3.7 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.3 per cent — both above the RBA’s 2–3 per cent target band.
Will March CPI be higher than February?
Almost certainly. The March reference period captures the first full fortnight of the Middle East oil shock, with no fuel excise relief in place. All four major banks are forecasting a material increase, with some projecting headline CPI heading toward 5 per cent by mid-year.
Will a high March CPI mean another RBA rate hike?
All four major banks are currently forecasting a 25 basis point hike at the May RBA meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.35 per cent. A March CPI above 4 per cent would strengthen that case significantly. Track the latest RBA forecasts on Fenro’s interest rate tracker.
What does the Geelong refinery fire mean for the April CPI?
The Geelong refinery fire on 15 April will not affect March CPI. However, with the facility running at minimum capacity, any sustained fuel supply disruption will feed directly into April and May inflation readings — compounding what is already an extremely elevated baseline.
The Bottom Line
The March 2026 CPI print on 29 April is not a routine data release. It is the first clean measure of how the Middle East oil shock has embedded itself into Australian prices — before any government relief. What it shows will determine whether the RBA hikes in May, and whether Australians face a third consecutive rate rise in a matter of months.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Data is sourced from publicly available Australian government sources and is accurate at time of publication. Please consult a registered professional for advice specific to your situation.
