Australia’s Grocery Bill in 2026 — What the Data Actually Shows
Australian grocery prices are at their highest point in recent memory. According to official ABS data, food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.1 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026 — and the average Australian household is now spending $178 per week at the supermarket.
The data confirms what most people already feel at the checkout. Here is what the publicly available research and official figures actually show, explained as clearly as I can based on my own research.
What Australians Are Spending on Groceries in 2026
According to a July 2025 survey of more than 2,800 supermarket shoppers by Canstar Blue , the average Australian household spends $178 per week on groceries. That is 6 per cent more than the $168 per week recorded in 2024, and 11 per cent more than the figure in 2023. For a family of four specifically, the weekly grocery bill has risen from $216 to $240 over the past year — an 11 per cent increase that puts annual grocery spending at $12,480. That is almost $3,000 more than the equivalent figure in 2021.
The picture varies significantly by state. Research from Compare the Market found that Queensland recorded the biggest year-on-year jump — up $38 per week or 22.3 per cent, adding up to nearly $2,000 more per year. New South Wales households are spending around $882 more per year than 12 months prior, and Victoria is in a similar position at approximately $915 more annually. Western Australia saw weekly grocery spend jump around $36 year-on-year, while South Australia and the Northern Territory reported among the lowest average weekly bills.
It is also worth noting that grocery costs in regional and remote Australia are substantially higher than in major cities. In some parts of the Northern Territory, groceries can be 21 to 62 per cent more expensive than in Darwin or Alice Springs, according to the same Canstar Blue research.
What the Official ABS Data Shows About Australian Food Prices
The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes a Consumer Price Index every month that tracks how prices are changing across a basket of household goods and services. This is the official measure of inflation in Australia, and the figures are worth understanding in detail.
The most recent data at the time of writing shows food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.1 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026. Overall CPI inflation was 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to January 2026, with housing the largest contributor at 6.8 per cent annually — reflecting higher electricity costs, rent, and new dwelling prices. Meals out and takeaway rose 3.9 per cent in the year to January 2026, driven by higher wages and ingredient costs. The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — trimmed mean — was 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to February 2026.
Why the 3.1 Per Cent Grocery Price Rise Is Misleading on Its Own
A 3.1 per cent annual rise in grocery prices sounds manageable. But it is important to understand what that number actually means in context.
This is not a 3.1 per cent rise from 2021 grocery prices. This is a 3.1 per cent rise from prices that were already significantly elevated after two years of above-average food inflation. The higher grocery prices of 2023 and 2024 have become the new baseline from which further increases are now being measured.
As Canstar Blue researchers observed in August 2025, prices that rise rarely come back down. When households see a slight increase one year, those grocery prices do not go back. They stay elevated or continue rising. This is sometimes called the price ratchet effect — and it is particularly significant for households on fixed or lower incomes, where food takes up a larger share of total weekly spending.
Why Australian Grocery Prices Rose So Much
Several factors drove Australian grocery prices higher over the past three years. Based on publicly available information, here is what the evidence points to.
Global Supply Chain Disruptions
COVID-19 pandemic disruptions pushed up the cost of shipping, packaging, and raw ingredients globally. Australia imports a significant proportion of its packaged and processed food, meaning global price increases flow directly onto supermarket shelves and into Australian grocery bills. Even as global supply chains have normalised, the higher prices established during the disruption period have largely remained in place.
Fuel and Transport Costs
When diesel prices rise, the cost of transporting food from farms to distribution centres to supermarket shelves rises with it. Those costs are built into the price of every item in your trolley. The relationship between fuel prices and grocery prices is direct — and Australian consumers felt it acutely during the period of elevated global oil prices. For more on how fuel costs affect everyday Australian prices, see our coverage of prices and everyday costs.
Energy Costs for Food Manufacturers
The electricity and gas needed to process, refrigerate, and package food increased substantially over this period. These energy costs are embedded in the price of every packaged product on supermarket shelves and are not immediately visible to shoppers. For more on how Australian energy prices have moved and what it means for households, see our “Australian energy costs coverage“.
Extreme Weather Events
Flooding in New South Wales and Queensland at various points through this period damaged crops and disrupted harvests, reducing supply and pushing up grocery prices for fresh produce. Fruit prices recorded some of the largest spikes of any food category as a direct result of supply being constrained by weather damage. These weather-related price spikes tend to be temporary, but they contribute to an overall upward trend in the baseline cost of fresh food.
Wage Growth in Food Retail
Rising wages for supermarket and food manufacturing workers also contributed to higher operating costs, which were partly passed on through retail grocery prices. This is reflected directly in the ABS data, which shows meals out and takeaway up 3.9 per cent annually — explicitly driven, in the ABS’s own words, by rises in wages and ingredient costs.
How Australians Are Changing the Way They Shop
Higher grocery prices are changing shopping behaviour in measurable ways across Australia. The Canstar Blue research found that 71 per cent of shoppers now pay attention to supermarket specials and offers in 2025, up from 63 per cent in 2024. More than 61 per cent of shoppers now visit two or more supermarkets each week to find the best grocery prices — a significant shift from previous years when most Australians were loyal to a single store.
A third of those surveyed said they tend to buy supermarket-owned brands rather than big-brand products to manage costs, and more shoppers are choosing frozen produce over fresh. There is also a clear trend toward planning meals around what is on special rather than buying at full price. These changes represent a fundamental shift in how Australians approach the weekly grocery shop — one driven directly by sustained pressure on household budgets.
The RBA’s Role and What It Means for Grocery Prices
The Reserve Bank of Australia sets the official cash rate with the goal of keeping inflation between 2 and 3 per cent. When inflation runs above this band — as it has over the past two years — the RBA raises interest rates to slow spending across the economy.
Higher interest rates affect grocery prices indirectly. When households with mortgages face higher repayments, they have less money to spend on everything else including food. This can reduce overall consumer demand, which in theory puts downward pressure on prices over time. However, the relationship between interest rates and grocery prices is not direct or immediate. Food prices are influenced by global commodity markets, domestic weather events, and supply chain factors that the RBA’s cash rate cannot control — which is why food inflation can remain elevated even as overall interest rate policy tightens. For a plain English explanation of how RBA rate decisions work and what they mean for ordinary Australians, see our Explained section.
Where Australian Grocery Prices Stand in 2026
Based on the most recent ABS data and independent consumer research, food inflation in Australia is running at approximately 3.1 per cent annually as of February 2026. The average Australian household is spending approximately $178 per week on groceries, and a family of four is spending approximately $240 per week — $12,480 per year. Australian grocery prices are significantly higher than in 2021 and are not expected to return to those levels.
Australians are adapting by shopping across multiple supermarkets, switching to home brand products, and planning meals more carefully around specials. Whether grocery prices stabilise further or continue rising will depend on global commodity prices, domestic fuel and energy costs, weather events affecting crops, and wage growth across the food sector. The ABS will continue publishing monthly CPI data that tracks these movements — and Fenro will report on it as it comes out.
This article is for general informational purposes only and reflects the author’s own research and understanding of publicly available data. It does not constitute financial advice. Data was accurate at the time of writing — always verify current figures directly with official sources.
